Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

Cattle & Beef - two cows on green pasture

    The Livestock markets were higher today, and I think that provided another selling opportunity. February'24 Live Cattle were 3.200 higher today and settled at 165.725. The low today in Feb'24 Live Cattle was 162.675 and that's just above the 1-month and 52-weel low of 162.400. Since 11/8 February'24 Live Cattle are 13.750 lower or over 7 ½%. January'24 Feeder Cattle gained 5.025 today and settled at 215.300. Today's low in Jan'24 Feeders was 210.400, not far from the 1-month and 52-week low of 209.150.  Since 11/8 Jan'24 Feeders are down 17.475 or 7 ½%. Hogs gained today as well. February'24 Lean Hogs were 1.200 higher today and settled at 68.975, just above the 1-month and 52-week low of 65.800. Since 11/8 Feb'24 Hogs are down 5.875 or almost 8%. I feel that today's small rally in the Meats was a gift, or opportunity to short the Cattle markets over the weekend, and I still like the idea of selling into any strength in the Cattle Markets. I believe the Live Cattle will head lower to 145-150 levels, and the Feeders will slide to the 180-185 level. The Grain Markets broke after the release of the WASDE Report this morning. January'24 Soybeans were 7 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1304. The beans broke from their high today of 1330 ¾ after the Report. Since 11/8 Jan'24 Beans are down 61 ¾ cents or 4 ½%. March'24 Corn gave back 2 ½ cents today and settled at 485 ½. Since 11/8 Mar'24 Corn is 4 ½ cents lower or almost 1%. The Wheat market also broke today. March'24 Wheat fell 10 ½ cents today and settled at 631 ¾. Since 11/8 Mar'24 Wheat is 15 ¼ cents higher or almost 2 ½%. Today was a perfect example of selling into any strength in the Grains. The Grain markets turned around from their highs, just after the report. Jan'24 Soybeans broke over 30 cents from their highs today. I hope you took advantage of that opportunity, if not, I feel there will be other moves higher you can lean into. It is still my opinion that the Jan'24 Soybeans will expire around the $13.00 level, and will continue lower from there… I like the $11.50 level in Soybeans next Summer or Fall. I recommend hedging in July'24 Soybeans now. There is always opportunity if you know where to look for it. 

CORN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 485 1/2500C9 1/4$462.50
 530C3 1/4$162.50
 560C1 1/4$62.50
 ATM 485C 15 1/4ATM STRADDLE 30EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 497 1/2550C7 5/8$381.25
 600C2 3/4$137.50
 650C1 1/4$62.50
 ATM 500C 21 5/8ATM STRADDLE 45 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 506550C14 7/8$743.75
 600C6 7/8$343.75
 650C3 3/8$168.75
 ATM 500C 32ATM STRADDLE 58 1/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

CORN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 485 1/2460P5 1/8$256.25
 430P1 1/8$56.25
 400P3/8$18.75
 ATM 485P 14 3/4ATM STRADDLE 30EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 497 1/2460P7 1/2$375
 430P2 1/2$125
 400P3/4$37.50
 ATM 500P 24 1/8ATM STRADDLE 45 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 506450P7 3/8$368.75
 400P1 1/2$75
 350P3/8$18.75
 ATM 500P 26 1/8ATM STRADDLE 58 1/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 CORN

CURRENT PRICEPRICE ACTIONPRICE AFTER MOVESTRIKECURRENT PRICE
507 1/210% BULL MOVE558 1/4550C22 1/2
507 1/210% BEAR MOVE456.75460P15 3/8
507 1/220% BULL MOVE609600C12 3/8
507 1/220% BEAR MOVE406410P4 1/4
507 1/230% BULL MOVE659 3/4650C7 1/8
507 1/230% BEAR MOVE355 1/4360P1

CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS

WHEAT CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 631 3/4650C25 5/8$1,281.25
 700C13 1/8$656.25
 750C7 1/8$356.25
 ATM 630C 33 3/8ATM STRADDLE 65EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 640 1/2700C25 1/2$1,275
 750C16 3/8$818.75
 800C10 7/8$543.75
 ATM 640C 44 5/8ATM STRADDLE 88 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 645 1/2700C33 7/8$1,693.78
 800C16 1/8$806.25
 900C8 5/8$431.25
 ATM 650C 49 3/4ATM STRADDLE 103 7/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

WHEAT PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 631 3/4550P4 5/8$231.25
 525P2 1/8$106.25
 500P1$50
 ATM 630P 31 5/8ATM STRADDLE 65EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 640 1/2550P8 7/8$443.75
 500P2 3/4$137.50
 450P3/4$37.50
 ATM 640P 44 5/8ATM STRADDLE 88 3/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 645 1/2550P12 1/8$606.25
 500P4 1/8$206.25
 450P1 1/4$62.50
 ATM 650P 54 1/8ATM STRADDLE 103 7/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT

CURRENT PRICEPRICE ACTIONPRICE AFTER MOVESTRIKECURRENT PRICE
654 3/410% BULL MOVE720 1/4720C38 3/4
654 3/410% BEAR MOVE589 3/8590P27 7/8
654 3/420% BULL MOVE785 3/4780C26 1/4
654 3/420% BEAR MOVE523 3/4530P10 3/4
654 3/430% BULL MOVE851 1/8850C17 3/8
654 3/430% BEAR MOVE458 3/8460P2 3/4

CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

Call or email me if you would like to talk about the markets. 

I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock

and Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM 

Call for specific trade recommendations.

1-312-957-8079 

1.800.993.5449

Email me for free research. 

BAllen@walshtrading.com 

Bill Allen

Senior Account Executive

Direct:      1 312 957 8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750

Chicago, Illinois 60604

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.


Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. 

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.


On the date of publication, Bill Allen did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.