Beans Spike Below $13, Stay Above for the Close

Large pile of soybeans

The Friday soybean trade settled with prices 4 to 7 ¾ cents in the red. The Jan contract spiked below the $13 round number after the report, but futures closed back above the mark. Jan beans printed a wide 31 ¾ cent range on the day, and finished out the week with a net 21 cent loss. Soymeal futures ended the Friday session $1.80 to $2.10 weaker, with Jan down by $8 for the week. Soybean Oil futures traded lower into the weekend with 80 to 96 point losses on Friday. That pushed the Jan contract’s weekly loss to 125 points. USDA left the average soybean cash price at $12.90 for soybeans, but had meal$10/ton higher at $390 and soy oil 4 cents weaker at 57 c/lb. 

The weekly CoT data showed soybean spec traders were dropping soybean longs during the week that ended 12/5. That left the group 31k contracts less net long at 36,633. Commercial soybean hedgers were closing short hedges during the week, reducing their net short to 116,207 contracts. 

The daily reporting system showed that China booked 136k MT of soybeans via private export sale. 

USDA reported no changes for the domestic soy balance sheets, save for the cash price for the products. Soybean carryout stayed at 245 mbu, while the average of pre report estimates was to see a slight 3 mbu trim. 

On the world stage, USDA trimmed soy production by 1.5 MMT, mainly via a 2 MMT cut to Brazil. Chinese import demand was upped by 200k MT to 102 MMT. CONAB cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 160.18 MMT, down 2.24 MMT from last month. They still have planted area up 2.8% from last year at 45.309 million HA. Exports for the 2023/24 campaign are expected to be 109.59 MMT (4.026 billion bushels, or not quite double the November forecast for US shipments). 

Jan 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.04, down 7 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $12.48 3/8, down 7 1/2 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.23, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $13.37 1/4, down 7 cents,

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.